Senator Eliot Shapleigh - El Paso, Texas

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) is reconsidering a plan to resign from the Senate this year, a huge relief to Republicans who fear that a special election — even in deeply red Texas — could give Democrats a 60-seat, filibuster-resistant majority in the Senate.

Hutchison, who plans to run for governor in 2010, has been under pressure from Republican colleagues to stay in her Senate seat as long as she can.

“She’s a great lady, and I don’t blame her if she wants to run for governor, but the fact is we’d like her not to,” said Sen. Orrin G. Hatch (R-Utah). “We’d like her to stay right here.”

Added a senior GOP aide: “I cannot imagine that … Sen. Hutchison would abandon her seat to pursue her own ambitions and even risk giving Democrats a supermajority in the Senate.”

At the Capitol on Wednesday, Hutchison told Politico that she’s going to “stay here this year regardless.” She subsequently equivocated a bit, saying she still could resign very late this year — or “stay for two years.”

But even waiting until late this year could be a big help to the GOP. Under Texas law, Gov. Rick Perry — a Republican — would appoint a short-term replacement for Hutchison. A special election would likely be held in November 2009 if Hutchison resigns before Sept. 28. If she resigns later in the year, the special election wouldn’t be held until May 2010.

Democrats currently hold 57 seats in the Senate. Once Roland Burris takes his seat Thursday — and assuming Al Franken is seated from Minnesota — they’ll be at 59, just one seat shy of the 60 they need to overcome a GOP filibuster.

“The timing will be important … for making sure we do everything we can to protect that seat,” said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), a member of the Senate GOP leadership.

Hutchison, a former member of the leadership and one of the most prominent Republican female politicians in the country, signaled that she has no desire to be the one who lets the Democrats clear that hurdle.

“Really, I’m not going to have the impact [of giving Democrats 60 seats],” Hutchison said, moments after she held a long talk on the Senate floor with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). “The impact is going to be the 2010 elections.”

National Republicans and Texas politicians from both parties are watching her every move.


If Hutchison gives up her seat, national Republicans would likely move quickly to recruit their candidate and help raise money to ensure the seat stays in the party’s hands. But doing that would divert precious resources that would otherwise be used to help the party recover from two disastrous elections and defend four open seats in 2010.

“It’s more than a casual interest that we at least maintain 41 senators,” said Texas’ junior senator, John Cornyn, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He told reporters Wednesday that Hutchison might not resign if she pursues her governor’s bid.

Hutchison’s resignation likely would set off a primary battle between state and congressional lawmakers and state officials, according to local political operatives. A couple of prominent GOP names have also recently bubbled up as potential Hutchison successors, including state Attorney General Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.

And even though Democrats would have a tough climb to win the Senate seat, some already have their eyes on it, including Houston Mayor Bill White. The national party would undoubtedly put a huge amount of resources into the race if winning it would get Senate Democrats to the magic number of 60.

People close to Hutchison said she was thinking seriously about giving up her Senate seat early this year. She was growing tired of life in Washington, they said, and she was eager to be free of the political pressures of the Senate. Last fall, Hutchison moved her two young children from the Washington suburbs and enrolled them in school in Dallas. And she gave up her leadership position as chairwoman of the Senate GOP Policy Committee because she feared it would conflict with her ambitions back home.

Last month, Hutchison formed an exploratory committee for a governor’s run, setting up a clash in the GOP primary against Perry, the governor, who plans to run for a fourth term in 2010. While some suspect that she’s just testing the waters — and that she’ll ultimately decide to stay put in the Senate — Hutchison says it’s not so.

“I have made the decision; I’m now in the stage of planning,” she said of the governor’s race.

Hutchison soon plans to send a big signal that she’s serious about being in Austin in 2010: She’s planning to transfer her entire Senate campaign war chest — some $8.6 million through September — into her state campaign committee, according to the associate, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Last month, she transferred $1 million into her state coffers.