Senator Eliot Shapleigh - El Paso, Texas

"Texas Borderlands 2009:  Demographics of the Frontier of the Future"

Every month we publish a new chapter for our bi-annual policy report, "Texas Borderlands—Frontier of the Future."  Texas Borderlands examines various areas of daily life in Texas' 43-county Border region.  To offer a current overview of the region, each subsequent chapter details the challenges and opportunities of Texas' vibrant, fast-growing and ever-changing Border.  

In 2004, Texas became a majority-minority state.   In 2026, Texas is predicted to become a majority Hispanic state.   In so many ways, the Texas Borderlands of today represent the Texas of tomorrow.  What happens in this vibrant region will define the frontier of our future.  Chapter One presents the demographics of the Border Region.

The Texas-Mexico Border Region covers 1,254 miles from El Paso-Cuidad Juarez to Brownsville-Matamoros.  Texas' 43 Border counties are currently home to over 4.6 million Texans.   Moreover, the population on both sides of the Border is rapidly growing.  In the 1990s, the populations of El Paso-Cuidad Juarez grew by 38 percent, Laredo-Nuevo Laredo by 48 percent, and the McAllen-Reynosa area by 38 percent.   Rapid growth is projected to continue along the Texas-Mexico border.

With its fast growing, young population, one of the Border's primary assets is its vast labor force, which leads to a robust manufacturing sector.  In 2005, manufacturing in the Border region accounted for $6.25 billion worth of private earnings.   Trade with Mexico accounts for one in every five manufacturing jobs in the state, and exports make up 14 percent of the state's gross product.  

Mexico is the country's third-largest trading partner and, by far, Texas' largest trading partner, accounting for 36 percent of Texas' exports.  Moreover, strong trade relations with Mexico, Canada and China have allowed Texas to play a significant role in the national economy, surpassing California and New York as America's top exporting state.  Texas' exports totaled $150.9 billion in 2006, accounting for over 14.5 percent of total U.S. exports.   Today, Texas’ exports to Mexico far exceed all trade with the European Union countries combined.

Despite strong trade relations, the Border presents serious challenges. 

If the Border Region made up a "51st" state, the 43 Border counties would rank last in per capita personal income, first in poverty and fifth in unemployment.  Under current policies, the state demographer predicts that the average Texas household income will decline more than $6,000 by 2040.   As one of Texas' leading economists points out, leadership and investment will make the difference. 

In a briefing to Texas legislators, Dr. Ray Perryman stated that the Border region is a "social, economic, and demographic time bomb." It demands immediate attention, with both the gains from doing something and the consequences of doing nothing being enormous."

Click here to read the full report.

Eliot Shapleigh