As the capitol community recovers from what appears to be an unprecedented loss by the House Appropriations Chairman, there is much speculation about what happened.

It is clear that Democrat Hubert Vo, aided by Houston's rising star political consultant Mustafa Tameez along with Dan McClung, wove together a coalition that other political professionals dismissed as unlikely. The coalition included Latinos, Philipinos, Vietnamese, African Americans and other assorted ethnic groups.

University of Houston pollster Richard Murray is on the record saying the district was drawn to be lean Republican but the demographics changed faster than Republicans expected.

But among the Austin lobby, three other factors seem to emerge.

First, we hear repeatedly that Heflin seemed lackadaisacal about his own race, even going so far as to campaign for other Republicans in the final ten days. The speaker's team was more energized than the candidate, raising money and pounding the drum for help. In addition, there seemed to be a conviction that an air war would prevail over a ground war.

Second, a number of trade association types that could have been helpful took a pass over how Heflin handled his unexpected role as author of a tax bill. In the abbreviated passions of the special session on school finance, Heflin had to pinch hit for Ron Wilson (D-Houston) who was beaten in his primary and could therefore not chair a committee.

Given his assignment by the speaker, Heflin was a better soldier than he was coalition builder according to some. Although most with whom we spoke had only praise for Heflin's steadiness, several described conversations about their particular problems in which his response was take it or leave it. Whether or not those representations were fair is secondary to the perception. As one of the unhappy trade association lobbyists put it, "... there is always major peril in carrying a tax bill."

Third, the great strength of most trade associations is ground troops to aid in grassroots work. But in this case, Austin trade association executives found their folks in Houston decidedly cool about helping out. The issue that stuck in their craw was the courtroom battle over Heflin's effort to adopt his former housekeeper's baby. The story dominated news and talk radio for weeks. In the end, many trade associations found their members determined not to help.

For the time being at least, Heflin has lost his chairmanship -- just as the pre-session conversations on school finance get serious. That means a back room struggle to replace him is already underway. The most frequently mentioned name as a replacement is Jim Pitts (R-Waxahachie) although we also keep hearing Dianne Delisi (R-Temple) and Peggy Hamric (R-Houston).

It is possible that Heflin may decide to challenge the election outcome on the House floor. Recent history is ripe with examples of the Democratic House seating the Republican in these types of challenges.

Typically, a committee is created to review the facts of the case. It makes recommendations to the House and those recommendations are typically endorsed. However, some Republicans are already nervous that a floor vote would turn into a partisan loyalty test potentially damaging the speaker and any hope of bipartisan cooperation as the school finance challenge looms large in the distance.

Absent compelling facts leading to reversal of the election outcome, the story could be a public relations disaster for Republicans and would ratchet passions up to pre-Ardmore level on the Democratic side. With almost half of the Democrats already refusing to pledge to Craddick, the session could start off with a meltdown.