Many refer to state demographer, Dr. Steve Murdock, as a prophet. Using Census data and projection models, Dr. Murdock predicts that the Texas population of tomorrow will be larger, older and increasingly diverse. While in 1980, two of every three Texans were Anglo, today only 53.1 percent of Texans are Anglo, 32.0 percent are Hispanic, 11.6 percent are Black, and 3.3 percent are from another racial group. Due to the increasing growth of the non-Anglo population, Dr. Murdock predicts, that by 2040, the effect on enrollment in our public schools will be 19.9 percent Anglo, 8.3 percent Black, 66.3 percent Hispanic, and 5.5 percent from another racial group. This simple data is profound because the future of Texas will not be bright unless our great state makes institutional changes in its public education system to meet the challenges inherent in his predictions. Our highest priority during this legislative session should be creating a public education system that meets the needs of Texas' school children of today, not yesterday.

Percent of Texas Public Elementary and Secondary School Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2010 and 2040.

SOURCE: Steve Murdock, Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century, 2005

These demographic changes impact the type of education we fund and offer in our state. The fact is that the Texas public school of today does not look the same as the Texas public school of yesterday. In 1913, more than 75 percent of the schools were one-teacher schools educating primarily Anglo students, and more than 46 percent of the students were absent every day¹. As shown below, today's first grade enrollment at the state three largest school districts already reflect Dr. Murdock's predictions. Due to the growth in these populations, specialized education programs for limited English proficient and economically disadvantaged students will all experience similar increases.

In addition, Texas' economy of today is not the economy of our parents and grandparents. While oil and agriculture influenced the economic development of Texas for decades, today's Texas economy now shows substantial growth in telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, research and computer industries. From 1990 to 2000 alone, there were over 2,000,000 more employees in non-farm jobs². Today's schools must prepare our children to compete in a 21st century economy that relies less on physical labor and instead requires and rewards increased knowledge.

By investing in our children today, we invest in the families of tomorrow. If Texas does not improve public education, Dr. Murdock makes one other bleak prediction. Based on our state's rankings as dead last in the nation in high school graduation rates and 48th in average SAT scores, the state demographer bluntly predicts that Texas family incomes will decline $5000 by 2030. For the first time in Texas history, the next generation will be less prosperous than the current one. Be poorer tomorrow than you are today. We must heed the words of the prophet and change the course of Texas' future -- Invest in Kids, Invest in Our Future.

¹ Centennial Handbook - Texas Public School 1854-1954, p. 51, Texas Education Agency
² U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Statistics