AUSTIN - Texas voters have spoken and a convincing majority approved a half-billion-dollar fund to enable Texas Tech and six other emerging universities in the state to become national research institutions.

But it is still unclear how long it's going to be for Tech or any of the other schools to get the prestigious designation, better known as Tier One or flagship.

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State Sen. Robert Duncan, R-Lubbock, the Texas Senate sponsor of the constitutional amendment that became Proposition 4, which the voters approved Tuesday, thinks it could happen as early as 2013. Tech Chancellor Kent Hance and some leaders of the other schools competing for the designation agree.

Others, like state Rep. Dan Branch, R-Dallas, think it may take eight to 10 years but hope to be proven wrong and have it happen sooner.

However, even before the voters approved the $520 million fund to help the emerging universities get flagship status, Texas Higher Education Commissioner Raymund Paredes rained on the Tier One parade, saying it could take much longer - perhaps as long as 40 years.

"Advancement to national research university status will not be fast for any of the seven emerging universities," Paredes said at an Oct. 21 education summit at the University of Texas at Arlington, according to the Austin-based online publication Quorum Report.

"We're talking about a 20- to 30-year process, and I make that point because I think it's important not to raise expectations that are unreasonable," the commissioner said. "It's going to take a while for some of those institutions to get there."

This was not the first time Paredes had made such a long-range projection. Before the legislative session ended he told the Austin American-Statesman something similar.

"I think it's going to take any of those institutions 20 years to get there and some considerably longer - somewhere in the space of 20 to 40 years," he told the newspaper.

So, the debate as to how long it will take the seven emerging universities to become Tier One schools continues and Duncan is not pleased with Paredes' long-range projection.

"The commissioner is out of touch with reality," the soft-spoken and usually diplomatic Duncan said. "I think he should retract that statement because he is not aware of the work that all the emerging universities, not just Tech, have been doing to get the Tier One designation."

For instance, two months ago Tech announced it had raised $24.3 million to qualify for $21.5 million in matching funds from the state under the Texas Research Incentive Program (TRIP), Duncan said.

Paredes did not respond to requests for comment but Andy Kesling, assistant director of communications at the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, said, "Recognition of the Texas institutions as national research universities will require not only meeting state milestones, but a commitment to continuing state support of their quest for national research prominence."

Branch, the author of House Bill 51, legislation paving the way for emerging universities to get the Tier One designation, was more reserved than Duncan in his comments about Paredes, saying only he "will visit with the commissioner."

However, "We ought to be optimistic," Branch said. "With Proposition 4 and House Bill 51 we have $700 million for this goal, and we need to take advantage of it because while other states are hurting, we are in a position to invest in our universities and make them world class. This is good not only for the schools and the communities they are in but for the entire state."

Currently, the University of Texas at Austin, Texas A&M University in College Station and privately funded Rice University in Houston are the only national research institutions in the state. California, on the other hand, has nine and New York seven.

But in California, which for years led the nation in investing in higher education, the entire university system is hurting deeply and state officials and educators are worried.

"California is on the verge of destroying the very system that once made this state great," Jeff Bleich, chairman of the Cal State University Board of Trustees, recently told the board, according to the Los Angeles Times. "The ineffective response to the current financial crisis reflects trends that have been hurting California public education for years."

In California, Texas and throughout the nation the flagship designation is highly coveted not only because of the prestige for the universities that earn the title but because such institutions are usually first in line to get government research grants. Elite universities also attract major research contracts from top industries and are a big boost to local and state economies.

Like Branch, Duncan and other state legislators say the economic woes California and other states are facing gives Texas universities the opportunity to attract the brightest students and renowned faculty and researchers.

In Tech's case, getting the flagship designation would also be a big boost for all of West Texas, said state Rep. John Smithee, R-Amarillo. In Amarillo, for example, Tech's medical and pharmacy schools also do a great deal of research.

"Getting the Tier One designation would be a tremendous boost for Amarillo and the Panhandle as well," said Smithee, a Tech graduate.

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