EL PASO - The El Paso economy is doing better than that in much of the nation, but some storm clouds are starting to gather, according to a panel of industry experts and economists who spoke Tuesday at UTEP.

Bill Gilmer, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and officer in charge of the bank's El Paso branch, said the city has been doing better than many other places during this deep global recession, but will face some tests in 2009.

"During the last year, our job growth has slowed," Gilmer said. "From January to January, it's essentially zero. Our unemployment rate is rising and rising as fast as the rest of the nation."

Expansion at Fort Bliss, however, has provided an "underpinning" of growth and economic stability to the El Paso area, Gilmer said.

Gilmer served on a panel of industry leaders and University of Texas at El Paso business and economics professors who spoke during a State of the El Paso Economy event. About 250 business and community leaders attended the event organized by the Greater El Paso Chamber of Commerce and UTEP's College of Business Administration.

While El Paso's past economic performance has bucked national trends, looking at the past is like "looking at a pretty girl in the rearview mirror," Gilmer said. "Pretty soon you're going to have an accident."

The key is future performance, he said.

Mexico and the maquila industry have been unable to escape the global recession, he added.

During the fourth quarter, Mexico's economy declined at a 10 percent annual rate, which could impact El Paso, Gilmer said. El Paso has seen more than a 7 percent loss in manufacturing jobs during the past year, he added.

Dan Olivas, president of RE/MAX Elite, said the El Paso housing market is doing well despite "turbulent weather" in the national housing picture.

The median price of a home in El Paso was $95,000 in 2004 and is now $135,000, an increase of
Workers at Biggs Army Airfield assembled modular construction as they build barracks for soldiers coming to Fort Bliss as part of Base Realignment and Closure. Experts at Tuesday's State of the El Paso Economy Conference said Fort Bliss has bolstered the city's economy while the national economy has been suffering. (Mark Lambie / El Paso Times)
about 42 percent, Olivas said.

"We are in the right place at the right time," he said.

Olivas said "jobs, economic vibrancy and consumer confidence that has sustained itself" have helped the El Paso housing market buck the national trend.

The key is for business and community leaders to remain positive and spread the message about El Paso's relative strength, he added.

"And not listen to what the national media spews," he said. "Speak passionately at your clubs and organizations about why we can weather this economic storm."

In particular, Olivas cited the continued growth at Fort Bliss and the expansion of the city's medical sector, including the Texas Tech four-year medical school.

By 2013, El Paso's population will increase by a range of 70,000 to 90,000 people, mostly from Fort Bliss troops and their families, Olivas said.

That will create a "building boom" in the community, he said.

El Paso businessman Gregg Bush, an independent associate for Pre-Paid Legal Services Inc., attended the event but wasn't on the panel. Bush said the recession hasn't hurt El Paso as much as other places.

"But there are a lot of people who are concerned about job losses, especially in manufacturing," Bush said.

"The El Paso economy could be worse," he said. "You see on the news that tent cities are popping up (in some places in the country). That's how bad it's been. They're in a lot worse shape than we are. We need to be grateful."

Both Mimco Inc. and River Oaks Properties, two locally owned development companies specializing in retail, both reported that they have a handful of projects in the works for later this year.

"You build new shopping around population growth areas and infrastructure," said Adam Frank, president of River Oaks.

Frank cited the continued growth at Fort Bliss and the city's medical sector with helping to keep retail development moving forward.

"We're not in as deep a recession as the rest of the country, but we're not immune," he said.

Harold Hahn, president of El Paso mortgage banker Rocky Mountain Mortgage Co., said his company is seeing a 3.5 percent delinquency rate on mortgages, about half of the national average.

"If you eliminate California, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Florida, you'd eliminate about half or 75 percent of the problems in the residential real-estate market," Hahn said.

El Paso is "certainly off the high we were experiencing," Hahn said. "But in our company's 24-year history, last year was our fourth best for loan production. In January and February, we're ahead of our budget. We're lending about $10 million a month in El Paso and we project we'll do $12 million in March."

Hahn said about 20 percent of his volume is related to refinancing.

Larry Patton, president of locally owned Bank of the West, said El Paso is undergoing "unprecedented growth" and Fort Bliss has provided a significant economic boost.

"I think we can all agree: Thank God for Fort Bliss," he said.

Consumer credit has tightened up, and banks are requiring better credit scores, Patton said. "Getting back to the basics will help us succeed."

Richard Dayoub, president of the Greater El Paso Chamber of Commerce, said similar events will be held throughout the year to update the business community and public about the economy.