AUSTIN – As most states scramble to patch holes in their budgets, Texas glides along unscathed – for now.

Estimates by fiscal watchdog groups vary, but between 37 and 41 states are dealing with shortfalls this year or will face a budget gap in 2009.

While California, New York, Florida, Michigan and Ohio make painful choices – higher taxes, spending cuts – Texas has a surplus topping $11 billion.

State leaders remain upbeat as the next legislative session approaches in January, though Gov. Rick Perry has warned agency heads to curb travel and show restraint.

Experts say that although declining oil prices and disappointing revenue from a revised business tax may signal fiscal trouble ahead, sales tax receipts have remained strong.

Overall, the state is in pretty good shape, said former state Deputy Comptroller Billy Hamilton.

"We're going to have some slowdown, but we've been graced by not having had the subprime mortgage problem" hit as hard here as in other states, said Mr. Hamilton, who kept a close eye on Texas finances for decades.

The Legislative Budget Board has calculated that new spending by lawmakers will be capped at about 9.1 percent over the current two-year budget.

Also, the surplus Texas has projected through next year includes $3 billion lawmakers set aside to pay for school property tax cuts in the next two-year budget cycle. And Medicaid and other health programs will draw down the surplus by a few billion more.

Mr. Hamilton said states with income taxes have seen revenue plummet, especially in the Northeast, where financial companies have laid off thousands and in Midwestern states suffering losses of manufacturing jobs. Texas doesn't have an income tax.

Michelle Blackston of the National Conference of State Legislatures said Texas is among several energy-producing states reporting no budget gap. Others include Alaska, Louisiana, North Dakota and Wyoming, she said.

"That's obviously going to change as oil prices drop," Ms. Blackston said.

Mr. Perry has said Texas' economy is strong and continues to create jobs because of low taxes and conservative policies.

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who presides over the state Senate, recently promised to restrain spending in next budget but said that "because of conservative fiscal decisions ... our state's economy remains stronger than virtually every other state in the nation."