Let's assume, as I did in a column last week, that the University of Houston is laps ahead of the pack in the race to become Texas' third nationally competitive public research university.

There's still no sure sign from state leaders that there will be a medal at the finish line.

Lawmakers recently fired the starter's pistol, encouraging the state's emerging universities to compete against each other in devising persuasive pitches that would prove to lawmakers why they deserve a boost in state funding that could elevate them to the status of Texas' two nationally competitive public universities: the University of Texas at Austin and Texas A&M.

But the amount of funding promised couldn't buy a Bevo plush toy from the UT Co-op.

"Absolutely, it's something the governor supports ... because he knows we do need more tier-one institutions," says Rick Perry spokeswoman Allison Castle. "The question becomes where and how."

'How' is the big question

And if the panel does come up with a plan that supports funding another top-tier university, or two, how viable would it be in the upcoming session, given the slowing economy and Texas' recent track record on higher education spending?

I'm not the only one with doubts.

"No one needs to make the case for UH to be a top-tier school. The reasons are there. The only thing lacking is the willpower to fund them at the level that needs to happen," says state Sen. John Whitmire, D-Houston, a UH alum. "I'm here to tell you the budget instructions from the governor's office are 'don't come in asking for more.' I think what they're really telling the universities is to try to figure out how to do more with less."

'The greatest mistake'

"The greatest mistake," says Texas A&M President Emeritus Ray Bowen, would be for lawmakers to "claim we're going to do it and then underfund it."

He adds: "I wouldn't put it past them."

Lawmakers in the upcoming session expect a surplus of $10.7 billion, much of it attributed to record oil prices, but the governor has already said he'd like to return part of that to taxpayers.

And advocates of competing priorities are already seeking dibs on the rest. Among them, unfortunately, is simply funding our universities at the current levels. Attending college in Texas has gotten harder, not easier for middle-income students since the state deregulated tuition in 2003. Spikes in tuition have saddled students with greater debt.

And while state spending has technically grown since deregulation, per-student spending has dropped because it hasn't kept pace with inflation or enrollment.

Last session, higher education projects deemed "pet pork" by the governor were among those that fell victim to his line-item veto. He slashed more than $35.8 million out of $123 million in higher education earmarks that had been approved by lawmakers in the two-year budget. Among the cuts were half a million for administrative operations for the UH System.

With all the talk about adding another top-tier university, one might assume we adequately fund the ones we've got. While UT and A&M are certainly the Chosen Two by Texas standards, sole beneficiaries of the Permanent University Fund, the picture is far different on a national scale.

"Our greatest obstacle today is the fact that UT is underfunded relative to our national peers," says UT President William Powers in a recent quarterly newsletter, in which he specifically lists "lack of legislative support and funding" among the institution's challenges to overcome.

Within UT's 12-member National Comparison Group — including Berkeley, Michigan, North Carolina and Illinois — Powers writes, UT ranks 10th in state appropriations per student. When PUF income is added, UT moves up to seventh.

Seventh. That's the best we can do for the best university in the state. It begs the question: Can we afford to add another "best" to that list? Without a substantial state funding increase, we would only risk watering down the quality of our current flagships.

State Sen. Judith Zaffirini, D-Laredo, who chairs higher education subcommittees that recently heard presentations from university presidents, said she believes the top-tier issue will be a priority for Perry and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who asked lawmakers to study it.

"Is the money available? Yes it is. The difficulty is defining the priorities."

And that's the question. When will higher education become a top priority in Texas?