Here's my question about Rick Perry, now that he's running for governor again in 2010:

Does he understand Texas is undergoing one of its episodic sea changes, the kind that leaves the state looking different than it did before?

If he does, then he can make a case for why he should continue leading our state after a record 10 years in the Governor's Mansion. If he doesn't, he has no business running, much less winning.For that matter, neither do the other Republicans and Democrats thinking about seeking the job. Republicans Kay Hutchison and David Dewhurst and Democrats like Houston Mayor Bill White won't help Texas without spending a lot of time thinking about our demographic changes. The status quo won't get us where we need to go.

Look at our public schools, colleges and health care system. Each faces the reality that Texas is becoming poorer, older and more Latino. I've written about these demographic shifts before, but it's in our best interest to remember them while evaluating gubernatorial candidates. (Yes, I know, we haven't even finished the presidential race. But Mr. Perry got ahead of that contest last week with his surprise re-election announcement, so the governor's race is on.)

That race will take place as Texas undergoes one of its most monumental revolutions. In the middle 1800s, we went from a nation to a state. As the 1900s began, we moved from a cotton-based to an oil-based economy. After World War II, we finally morphed from a rural society into an urban/suburban one.

This next transformation will be led by the rapid growth among Hispanics, many of whom aren't top income earners, and the retirement of a significant number of baby boomers. The 2010 governor's race will require leaders who can tell us how they would stay ahead of this change.

What we can't afford is a governor who doesn't fit the times.

We've had them. Democrats Preston Smith and Dolph Briscoe were mostly rural leaders when Texas was turning into a cosmopolitan, urban state in the late 1960s and 1970s. They weren't bad people, just incongruous with our state's path.

Mr. Smith, for example, promoted things like driving friendly precisely when our state was becoming an aerospace center. We needed more leadership than that.

We paid for some leaders sleep-walking through that time, too.

For instance, the courts took over our prisons and our schools suffered until Democratic Gov. Mark White and Ross Perot demanded change in the 1980s.

We can't afford a new round of passivity. That won't help Texas amid its latest changes.

To his credit, Mr. Perry has understood some of the new dynamics.

For example, he's been out front creating a better transportation system.

He also anticipates political moods. Almost 20 years ago, he saw where Texas' political future was headed and jumped from the Democratic Party to the GOP.

But you can't always say he's ahead of the game. This West Texas polygamy case is a perfect example. People I've interviewed have asked a similar question: Where's the governor?

Why isn't he out there reassuring everyone that the state will find a shelter for these kids now that the judge has decided they won't go back to the compound for a while? Why isn't he saying the state will turn loose emergency funds for more child welfare workers until this situation gets resolved?

Texas Republicans especially should look for an innovative leader. Brands are changing.

It's becoming fashionable for swing voters in places like North Texas to go Democratic. That's partly because of Texas' demographics, the Bush presidency and appealing candidates like Sen. Barack Obama.

Republicans could fuel that "rebranding" – and not in their favor – without a compelling candidate. One who fits the times.

If Rick Perry thinks he's that guy, he better not act as if the past is prologue.