Women, Latinos, older voters backed Clinton
April 22, 2008
When coupled with robust support from undecided voters and from rural areas, Clinton's core backers proved to be a little bit stronger than Sen. Barack Obama's coalition of young, college-educated and city-dwelling voters, according to exit polls and political analysts.
Written by Chuck Lindell and W. Gardner Selby, Austin American-Statesman
By paying careful attention to her strengths, Sen. Hillary Clinton parlayed support from women, Latinos and older voters into a close but significant victory in the Texas primary.
When coupled with robust support from undecided voters and from rural areas, Clinton's core backers proved to be a little bit stronger than Sen. Barack Obama's coalition of young, college-educated and city-dwelling voters, according to exit polls and political analysts.
The result was a 51 to 47 percent victory in the popular vote and a similarly small lead in the 126 pledged delegates that Texas divvied up Tuesday.
"She's finally hit her stride," Washington pollster Celinda Lake said. "She also had a base in Texas; people forget that."
Based on the statewide vote, Clinton gained four more delegates than Obama. However, incomplete results in Val Verde County could drop Clinton's advantage to two delegates if Obama can make small gains in 13 uncounted precincts.
On the other hand, Obama's grass-roots effort gave him an early lead in Tuesday's second round of voting — the nighttime caucuses that will help decide how an additional 67 delegates will be divided.
Texas Democratic officials projected that the caucuses could ultimately provide Obama with seven more national delegates than Clinton, erasing her gains from the popular vote.
Party officials expect to have final caucus results when county and district conventions convene March 29.
The mixed results left both campaigns arguing about who really "won" Texas.
But in the Texas popular vote, exit polls showed Clinton being carried by three key demographics:
Women: By supporting Clinton 54 percent to 45 percent, and outnumbering male voters by 14 percentage points, women provided an unbeatable margin.
From the start, Clinton embraced the historic nature of her campaign and invited women to share in the vision of breaking the ultimate glass ceiling. She identified with icons like former Gov. Ann Richards and showcased women who were born before 1920, when only men were allowed to vote.
Ramona Oliver with Emily's List, which backs women seeking office as Democrats, suggested Clinton's focus on the economy worked for Texas women. "The bottom line for women is they wanted somebody who not only knew what the problem was. They wanted somebody who could solve it," Oliver said.
By keeping women voters in her column, Clinton entered the primary in ship shape, said Republican pollster Mike Baselice. "She was winning this thing all month long," he said. "She was in control."
Latinos: One in three voters identified themselves as Hispanic, and 66 percent of them voted for Clinton.
Clinton lavished attention on Latino voters, who were identified early as her firewall against defeat in Texas. She courted Latino leaders and trumpeted their endorsements during visits to El Paso, San Antonio and the Rio Grande Valley. Spanish-language TV and radio ads emphasized her long-standing ties to South Texas.
Democratic analyst Leland Beatty applauded Garry Mauro, the former Texas land commissioner who coordinated Clinton's Texas campaign, for 30 years of work toward unifying the Latino Democratic vote.
"Breathtaking," Beatty said. "I take my hat off to (Mauro). The level of solidarity and discipline in turning out the vote is the sort of thing you don't see very much."
Older voters: Obama won the younger age brackets, but youth was outvoted almost 2-to-1 by those older than 45, a demographic that strongly supported Clinton.
Older women and Latinos proved to be too potent a combination for Obama to overcome, Beatty said. "Between them, they're a majority of the Democratic primary vote," he said.
In addition, Obama might have missed an opportunity by not seriously competing for votes in rural Texas, Beatty said. The area north of Interstate 10 and west of Interstate 35 resembles Kansas, a caucus state that Obama won with 74 percent of the vote, he noted.
"One of Senator Obama's most reliable demographics has been white Democrats in Republican areas whose politics are strongly influenced by their faith," Beatty said. "Obama seems not to have tried very hard for that part of the vote. If he had, he most likely would have walked away with a win in Texas."
Another dominant factor in Tuesday's vote was a late shift toward Clinton by undecided voters.
Two weeks before the primary, Obama was down 10 to 20 points in opinion polls — a deficit he quickly erased. Among early voters, Obama led 51 percent to 48 percent.
But in the final days of the Texas campaign — amid repeated Clinton criticism of Obama's ethics, leadership ability and judgment — the election turned Clinton's way. One in five voters made up their minds in the three days before the election, and 60 percent of them supported Clinton.
In other primary news:
The Travis County district belonging to state Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin, sent five of its eight delegates to Obama. State Sen. Rodney Ellis' Houston district delivered a 5-2 split for Obama, and state Sen. Royce West's Dallas district went 4-2 for Obama. All three senators endorsed Obama.
In the five districts along the Mexico border, Clinton's delegate advantage was 15-5.
Obama won the vote in Dallas, Houston, Austin and Fort Worth. Clinton won San Antonio and El Paso.
Fair Use Notice
This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a "fair use" of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond "fair use", you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.