AUSTIN — Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama — they love Texas Democrats now that they're in a fight for the party's presidential nomination, but will they be back in the fall?

The excitement of their contest has driven up Democratic primary early voting to dramatic levels. But GOP spokesman Hans Klingler said he expects things to be Republican as usual in the November election.

"In the end, the important vote is obviously going to be cast in November. It is there that, empirically and historically, Democrats in Texas have a tough time turning their people back out to the polls and sustaining that level of excitement post-primary," Klingler said.

In fact, the national Democratic ticket has all but turned its back on Texas in almost every presidential general election since Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976. The Electoral College math was that Democrats could win without Texas, so why spend money in a very large state?

Neither Clinton nor Obama has said whether anything will be different this time.

Clinton, in an interview with Texas Monthly, already appeared to be writing Texas off in the fall: "I'd love to carry Texas, but it's usually not in the electoral calculation for the Democratic nominee."

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told the Houston Chronicle it is too early to know whether the campaign will make a concerted effort in Texas in the general election.

"If Senator Obama is the nominee, we think there's a lot of states that will be in play, and again what the final — you know — two weeks out from election in October, what the final set of states is, it's too early to tell," Plouffe said.

State Rep. Garnet Coleman, D-Houston, criticized Clinton for her statement, saying it was the same mindset that led her husband to give up on Texas in the 1990s during his campaigns. Coleman said he believes Obama, whom he has endorsed, will give serious consideration to making Texas a major part of his general election strategy.

"He'll start with Texas on the (electoral college) map. Whether we make it to full funding by the end of the campaign will be determined," Coleman said. "What the Clintons are saying is, it (Texas) is excluded from day one."

Obama and Clinton have spent more money on Texas television advertising in the past three weeks than all the past four Democratic presidential nominees spent on their entire Texas campaigns combined.

Clinton has spent almost $3 million and Obama has spent $4.6 million on TV in Texas, according to a study by the Campaign Media Analysis Group produced for local campaigns. Clinton and Obama spent almost 60 percent of their money in Houston and Dallas. Clinton directed $268,000 at San Antonio TV; Obama, $546,779.

Past indicators not good

According to news reports from the time, Bill Clinton held some final-week rallies in Texas in his campaigns, but he spent just $250,000 on Texas radio and TV spots in 1992; $265,000 in 1996; and Al Gore and John Kerry essentially spent nothing on the state in 2000 and 2004.

Some Texas Democrats say this surrendering of the Lone Star State to the GOP in presidential elections was a major reason the Democratic Party declined locally in the 1990s.

The 1996 election became the first in which every statewide Democrat on the ballot lost.

"Most of the damage that was done was during the 1990s, and it hurt us badly," said Glenn Smith, a former adviser to Gov. Ann Richards.

Former Texas Land Commissioner Garry Mauro, a longtime Clinton supporter and campaign aide, said the last time any significant money was spent by a Democratic presidential candidate on television advertising in Texas by Carter in 1976.

But Mauro said Bill Clinton spent $3 million on organization in Texas in 1992, and he said Hillary Clinton has promised that Texas will be part of a 50-state strategy in November.

"She intends to play in Texas if she's the nominee," Mauro said.

The fall may still be in question, but there is no doubt that the Texas primary is important to Democrats.

20-year record at risk

More than half a million people cast Democratic primary ballots in the first eight days of early voting this year — setting a pace for the party to have more than a million presidential primary votes in the state for the first time since Bill Clinton tangled with Paul Tsongas in the 1992 elections.

Texas Secretary of State Phil Wilson on Wednesday predicted 3.3 million people will vote, breaking the 1988 record of 2.7 million who turned out when both parties had presidential nomination battles in Texas.

And the people Obama and Clinton are drawing to the polls are new or only occasional voters, according to a preliminary survey of early vote results from Harris and Dallas counties being done by the Texas Democratic Party.

Through last Saturday, half of those casting ballots had not voted in any of the past three party primaries; 20 percent are not regular general election voters; and about 2 percent are Republican crossover voters, said party consultant Ed Martin.

Republican early voting turnout also is running ahead of normal, but it remains unclear whether the party will break its record primary turnout of 1.1 million in the 2000 election featuring then-Gov. George W. Bush's run for president.