What do Texas numbers tell us?
March 12, 2008
Now that 4.2 million of us have voted in the all-eyes-on-Texas primaries, what did we learn about our state? The data pouring in from the March 4 contests is about as rich as we've seen since the 1994 Ann Richards-George W. Bush governor's race, when Texas politics started tilting Republican. Hidden amid all of last week's numbers is a narrative about who we are – and who we are becoming.
Written by William McKenzie, The Dallas Morning News
Now that 4.2 million of us have voted in the all-eyes-on-Texas primaries, what did we learn about our state? The data pouring in from the March 4 contests is about as rich as we've seen since the 1994 Ann Richards-George W.
Bush governor's race, when Texas politics started tilting Republican. Hidden amid all of last week's numbers is a narrative about who we are – and who we are becoming.
First, let me start with a confession:
Man, was I wrong.In January, I suggested where presidential candidates should go to win Texas votes. Among my proposals? "Forget Bubba." Given their limited time and resources, candidates should focus on Texas' big cities and the Rio Grande Valley, I reasoned. The huge swaths of East and West Texas could wait until November.
To show how wrong I was, look at the way Hillary Clinton won Tuesday's popular vote on the Democratic side. She captured few large cities but carried nearly every rural county, including the Valley and almost all of East and West Texas.
Rush Limbaugh probably inspired some rural conservatives to vote for her when he encouraged his listeners to support continued chaos in the Democratic race, but Democrats down the road should remember this primary. It shows that if they work hard enough – as Bill Clinton did in hitting Longview, Abilene and points in between for his wife – they can get votes in rural Texas.
My colleague, Michael Landauer, picked up on another piece of this story when he wrote on our DallasMorningViews blog that the primary vote was one more indication of how the state is divided between its urban/suburban metropolises and its rural communities. A map of Texas with voting patterns has Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and Austin looking like islands supporting Barack Obama, surrounded by an ocean backing Mrs. Clinton.
You certainly see these distinct universes at play in the Legislature.
Water. Transportation. The budget. It's hard to reach consensus in Austin on such issues because of the different ways rural and urban Texans view them. The debate over new reservoirs last year was a prime example: Dallas-Fort Worth wanted them; East Texas did not.
The skilled Texas politicians will find a way to build more consensus on big issues. Differences always will exist, but our state can't move forward if oars are paddling in opposite directions.
Point No. 2 from the election is that the Latino vote is hitting stride. And Republicans don't want to end up in future elections as Mr. Obama did – on the wrong side of it.
Latinos made up about a third of the Democratic primary vote. And Mrs. Clinton won about 65 percent of that slice.
Her figure was impressive, but the number that Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Sen. Kay Hutchison and other Republicans likely to run statewide in 2010 should pay attention to is 32 percent. That's how much of the Latino vote went to Mr. Obama on Tuesday. And you see where that number got him.
If they don't watch it, heretofore dominant Republicans could end up in the same place. President Bush has won more than 40 percent of Texas' Latino vote in statewide elections, but the way Republicans have sounded on issues like immigration reform, they are going to have to work really hard to get back there.
Sen. John McCain has a shot at doing that, by the way. Like Mr. Bush, he has been good on immigration. Latinos could cut him some slack, especially more conservative Latino evangelicals. The second e-mail I received on election night congratulating Mr. McCain on clinching the GOP nomination came from a group of North Texas Latino evangelicals.
Finally, Texas Democrats shouldn't get their hopes up – yet. Their 2.9 million primary voters dwarfed the GOP's 1.3 million, but the power of the state's suburban vote still favors Republicans in general elections.
What Tuesday did show is that Democrats can generate buzz in red Texas when they field compelling candidates. Pair exciting leaders with the emerging Latino vote, and Democrats could reemerge as Texas' majority party.
Come to think of it, Republicans ought to think the hardest about Tuesday's map. The headlines were mostly about Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and the Texas narrative is starting to run against the GOP.
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