Dear Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst:

Everyone around Austin assumes you're running for governor in 2010, so let me offer some campaign advice. The race begins now, as in this Legislative session. If you don't watch it, the next few months could torpedo your chances.We've already heard grumbling about you trying to pass bills that position you as Rick Perry's successor, like your recent talk about locking away sex offenders. I'm thinking, though, about the pace at which stuff gets thrown at you. And the quick decisions you must make on the political treadmill.

The first item is the hot-potato property tax cut bill the House sent to the Senate last week.

The bill got some House members angry, and justifiably so.

It turns out general revenues will have to finance about 40 percent of the property tax reduction passed in the last school finance special session. The new business tax you all created will cover about 60 percent of the property tax cuts over the next two years.

It wasn't supposed to work that way. The business tax was to largely replace local property taxes as the primary means of funding schools. That hasn't happened because the rate is too low, and increases in property values have put the state on the hook for more money.

As the Senate's leader, your challenge is what to do next.

The Senate needs to agree with the House's proposal to cough up about $6 billion from general revenues to pay for the $14 billion tax cut over the next two years. (The new business tax will supply about $8 billion.) Folks were promised reductions, and you can't renege right out of the gate.

But then comes your first major campaign decision: Should you press senators to set aside another big chunk of cash to finance the last installment of the tax cut, which comes due in 2009?

To your credit, you've argued that legislators should plan ahead. As a Scot, I like prudence. But being prudent here is not the right choice, politically or substantively.

By setting aside another $3 billion now for tax cuts in 2009, you'll further the perception that Republicans only care about lowering taxes. There's a good chance opponents could eat you alive in the governor's race as the guy who favored property tax cuts over adequately funding colleges, the sciences and health care.

There's a lot of time before 2009 to see if enough money materializes. Meanwhile, that $3 billion could go now to several legitimate causes. Here's one.

There's a program called Avance, which operates chapters around Texas, including one in West Dallas. Its staff is on the front line of our demographic challenge, which is getting young Latino families involved in our schools.

Avance's employees work day in, day out with families who don't talk to their kids enough, whether that's simple chatter around the house or reading aloud. We now know that children aren't ready for school if they don't receive enough verbal stimulation at home.

The kicker? Avance gets only about $1.5 million from the state each legislative session. That's a heck of a long way from the big sums we're putting away for tax relief.

The Senate could help Texas' cause if it put some of that $3 billion into programs like Avance. If kids aren't ready to learn, they'll falter, the state will lose out on skilled workers, and we'll get dropouts headed toward crime.

I know you are concerned about issues like this – and how your party responds to them. And there are plenty of business leaders, suburban moms and school and medical execs who worry about them, too.

My bet is they would stand behind you if you pushed to invest the money now. That would give you backing if Republican anti-taxers came after you. (I was surprised to hear some corporate sorts tell this newspaper last week the state should invest now, not set that money aside for more tax cuts.)

You're the guy who can position your party for a long run after 2010, but that decision needs to be made now. It could be a short run if you and your party play to type.