Senator Eliot Shapleigh - El Paso, Texas

When it comes to the school dropout rate, Texas is all about grade inflation.

The Texas Education Agency reports a 4.3 percent dropout rate for students in the 2005 graduating class. But researchers told the Legislature earlier this month that the figure for students who leave school without a diploma is 33 percent — and an even higher 40 percent for African Americans and Latinos.

That got the lawmakers' attention and ours. For years, Texas' high dropout rate has been camouflaged by a reporting system that keeps the rate artificially low. So while the state reports a low dropout rate, it reports a high attrition rate (about 32 percent), meaning the number of students who start in high school as freshmen and are not there as seniors. What happens to all those other students?

Researchers at the University of Texas, Rice University, Harvard and the Intercultural Development Research Association generally agree most of the rest are dropping out of school. Their estimate of one in three students leaving school without a diploma is roughly the same as the state's attrition rate of 32 percent.

A low dropout rate, as TEA reports, has lulled lawmakers into a false sense of security. The issue has not been on the front burner, though that should change this session. In reporting a low dropout rate, the state has cast itself as a leader nationally in graduating students. That image has largely been shattered by independent researchers digging into the Texas figures.

A recent study by Harvard University's Civil Rights Project found that "fewer than 60 percent of black and Latino students in Texas earn regular diplomas alongside their classmates. For black and Latino males, the rates hover just over 50 percent."

That hidden crisis is costing taxpayers plenty. Over 20 years, the lost tax revenue and expenses for social services, job training and incarceration add up to a $730 billion loss for the state, according to the Intercultural Development Research Association. The group provides Texas dropout data by county at www.idra.org.

If the state is serious about dealing with its dropout problem, it needs reliable data.

We know that the TEA figures are discredited because, in calculating the dropout rate, the agency uses a very narrow definition that excludes students who should be counted as dropouts.

The state doesn't count as dropouts students who are enrolled in GED programs (even those who don't finish the program), or high school seniors who complete their coursework but fail the state exit exam, or overage students who continue beyond four years in high school. Those students should be counted as dropouts because they aren't graduating, receiving diplomas or being tracked after four years in high school.

Texas districts also blur their numbers, exempting those who leave school for certain reasons (leavers). There are legitimate reasons students might not be counted — if they are transferring to another district or a private school in or out of the state. But districts have used that category for actual dropouts so they won't be counted in final tallies reported in state figures.

Aside from reliable data, the state needs clarity. Trying to make sense of the TEA data is a dizzying task. There is the dropout rate, attrition rate and completion rate, among others.

To be fair, the Texas Education Agency will change the way it reports dropouts this year. It will use the same definition most other states use.

More students will be counted as dropouts, including those who complete high school but flunk the exit skills exam (TAKS) and those who pursue GEDs. We should brace for sticker shock when that happens, because the agency's dropout figures are expected to move closer to those of researchers — closer to the truth. However late, it is a step in the right direction.