Senator Eliot Shapleigh - El Paso, Texas

AUSTIN — At least half of all high school students in the state's major cities are dropping out of school, creating a crisis that state leaders are not doing enough to address, some education experts say.

Statewide, each graduation class has at least 120,000 fewer students than started in their freshman class, with more than 2.5 million students dropping out of Texas schools during the past 20 years, according to the San Antonio-based Intercultural Development Research Association.

"We really need to raise the alarm on dropouts. The general public thinks that, maybe, there's about a 5 percent dropout rate in Texas — maybe a 20 percent dropout rate in the worst urban schools," said Robert Sanborn, president and CEO of Houston-based Children at Risk, a research and advocacy group for youths.

Researchers generally agree Texas' statewide dropout rate hovers around 33 percent, which is about 20 points higher than official statistics compiled by the Texas Education Agency.

The issue isn't just one of education, it's also economics.

High school dropouts have far less income potential. Their higher incarceration rates and dependence on public health care and other social services create much higher costs for society.

State leaders and lawmakers for years have acknowledged the dropout problem, but critics complain few resources have been invested to fix it.

"Today is like 'Groundhog Day.' Here we are again. We're going to beat this dead horse one more time, redefine the problem — and then what? I'm not really sure," Rep. Rick Noriega, D-Houston, said during a legislative briefing on the issue recently.

State leaders are aware of the high dropout numbers but focus most of their attention on property tax cuts and other issues, Noriega and others said.

A consistent dropout rate of 30 percent to 40 percent becomes, in effect, the state's de facto public policy, Noriega said.

"If our graduation rates in the state are 60 percent, that's our public policy as a state," he said. "We as Texans accept that graduation rate, apparently. That's what we do because that's what it is.

"Public policy is not what we say it is. It's not what is written. It's what's actual."

'Huge problem'

"We have a huge problem," he said.

That's why he and Sen. Florence Shapiro, R-Plano, insisted last year on giving all school districts $275 per high school student for dropout prevention and college readiness programs.

But the so-called high school allotment program is "not targeted for communities with the greatest need," said Albert Cortez, a director at the Intercultural Development Research Association.

Dewhurst said he agrees that a more targeted effort is needed.

"I want to focus on programs at your high-risk schools," he said. "How do we keep those at-risk kids in school? We'll be looking at that this session. This is a priority of mine."

If state leaders fail to solve the problem, they will have to keep building more state prisons — something Dewhurst supports this session.

A dropout is eight times more likely to be incarcerated, said Frances Deviney, director for Texas Kids Count.

A high school graduate earns $9,211 more per year than a dropout, and 16- to 19-year-old dropouts in Texas collectively forfeit about $900 million per year in earnings, she said.

Though it would cost at least $1.7 billion to keep those dropouts in four years of school, she said, the long-term costs for society are much more staggering.

The 2.5 million students — twice the population of San Antonio — who have dropped out of school in the past 20 years represent $730 billion in lost revenue and costs for the state of Texas, Deviney said, citing an Intercultural Development Research Association report.

"If those citizens disappeared from the map, we suspect that a lot of people would be very, very concerned," Cortez said. "We have to call it what it is. It's a crisis."

And Sanborn, of Children at Risk, said, "There's no defense — period — in terms of how we are allowing these many kids drop out of school."

If the current trend is not altered, average household incomes in Texas will decline, according to state demographer Steve Murdock. In about 30 years, average household incomes will be $6,500 less than they were in 2000 — a figure that would become larger if adjusted for inflation.

Taking action

"I am open to suggestions all day long. This is a huge public policy issue for me, and I want to make a difference," she said. "What type of intervention, what types of programs? Where are those that work and how do we emulate them?"

Like Dewhurst, Shapiro believes the state's dropout problem is much higher than statistics compiled by the TEA.

Agency officials said they are addressing the concern that the numbers could be low.

"We're working aggressively on many fronts to address the dropout problem," TEA spokeswoman Debbie Ratcliffe said. "We are changing the definition of a dropout, as we were directed to do by the Texas Legislature, and that will increase the official Texas dropout number."

The agency has implemented programs at the secondary and elementary school levels designed to help students become more successful so they don't consider dropping out, she said.

The dropout rate is highest for African Americans, Hispanics and low-income students — currently about 60 percent, said Eileen Coppola, a researcher at Rice University's Center for Education. "In our major urban districts, we can safely say that it's 50 percent," she said.

"If you live in a city like Dallas or Houston and half of your kids are not finishing high school, it's a social crisis because we know that those kids will likely live in poverty, be much more likely to go to jail and they will have more health problems," Coppola said.

She and others said it's imperative for Texans to learn about the state's true dropout rates and demand action from state leaders.

State Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, D-San Antonio, said, "We have to make the argument for why we should address this and why it should be a priority.

"I can't think of any other issue that probably holds us in a really tighter grip."