Senator Eliot Shapleigh - El Paso, Texas

Texas legislators will start their new terms Tuesday and, over the next five months, make decisions that could affect property tax bills, college tuition, schoolteachers' salaries, the length of prison terms, the fastest route to Dallas and whether some Texans have health insurance.

Those issues and dozens of others will receive plenty of attention at the Capitol between now and the end of the legislative session May 28.

But they probably won't get much attention in the next few days, because the first major order of business for the 149 members of the Texas House will be choosing a speaker. The outcome of that race will affect everything that follows because the speaker appoints committee leaders and directs the flow of legislation.

Other than the speaker's race, no single issue looms largest over the 80th Legislature. That's a change from 2005, when lawmakers were under court pressure to change how Texas paid for public schools, and 2003, when they faced a budget shortfall of nearly $10 billion.

"There aren't any particular outside circumstances at this point that drive this session," said Rep. Mark Strama, D-Austin. "So you really are going to find out what the individual priorities of each member are and then which of those members have the ability to make their priorities the priorities of others."

Every legislative session is about politics, and for the state's top three leaders, the political landscape has changed since the 2005 session.

Republican Gov. Rick Perry won re-election and is probably in his last four-year term, meaning he no longer has to keep an eye on the next election. Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who presides over the 31-member Senate, is in the opposite position: He's looking at a likely run for governor in four years that could include a battle for the hearts and minds of conservative Republican primary voters.

And in the House, a new speaker might replace the incumbent, Midland Republican Tom Craddick.

Craddick will have to address often-repeated concerns that he dictates the way House members vote and leaves them vulnerable to political trouble at home. Whoever wins (at this point, the candidates are Craddick and Waxahachie Republican Jim Pitts) will face a more evenly divided chamber than in the past four years; Republicans had a 26-seat advantage when they took control of the House in 2003, but Democratic victories at the polls have reduced the GOP's edge to 12 seats.

The one thing lawmakers must do is pass a state budget, and they should find that an easier task than it has been over the past four years.

Thanks to larger-than-projected growth in revenue from sales taxes and oil and gas taxes, lawmakers could have about $15 billion more in state money to spend than they had in 2005. They'll need much of that money to cover growth in current programs, such as education and Medicaid, and to deliver the second phase of property tax cuts they passed in a special session last year.

The Center for Public Policy Priorities, which calls for more spending on programs that help low-income families, says the added $15 billion is still $3 billion short of what lawmakers need to pay for current commitments and services, and to set aside adequate reserve funds for the 2009 session, when the property tax cuts will become even more expensive.

State demographer Steve Murdock projects that Texas' population, which was about 21 million in 2000, will grow to 30 million in 2020 and 44 million in 2040. Public school enrollment is growing by about 75,000 students per year.

Rep. Dan Branch, R-Dallas, said the Legislature needs to make sure the state can meet that growth with an educated work force, a viable transportation system, a social safety net and adequate supplies of water and power.

"Right now, there's a framework that's being stressed, and we have a lot of economic vitality," Branch said. "If we don't expand the framework, this strong economy and population growth is going to implode on itself."

Lawmakers are likely to revisit some of the major changes in state policy that the Legislature and Perry have pushed over the past four years. Efforts to privatize some of the state's social service programs, for instance, have hit rough waters, and there's been grumbling in some rural areas over the Trans-Texas Corridor, Perry's vision for a wide swath of toll roads, rail lines and pipelines running parallel to the state's major highways.

"I don't think there's a big move to just undo everything that we've done," said Rep. Dan Gattis, R-Georgetown. "I think there's a move to say, 'OK, let's evaluate. How are we doing? Is what we expected, is that what we're getting? If not, why?' "

KEY ISSUES TO WATCH DEVELOP DURING THIS LEGISLATIVE SESSION

Education

Lawmakers will consider replacing the Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills in high school with a series of end-of-course exams, which some say would do little more than increase the number of tests students must pass to graduate.

In higher education, university boards of regents now set their own tuition rates, but lawmakers will consider ways to mitigate the effects of rising tuition bills, such as giving schools significantly more money or boosting financial aid. According to the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, the average cost of tuition and fees at a Texas public university this year is $5,327. Four years earlier, it was $3,152.

"In a time of plenty, we need to work on ways to control and reduce the cost that students have to pay to get a degree in this state," Ogden said.

Criminal justice

A push is expected to toughen penalties for people who commit sex crimes against children. About 11,000 beds could be needed within five years to keep up with increasing numbers of felons, and lawmakers will have to decide whether to build prisons or try to divert people from prison by enhancing rehabilitation, probation and drug and alcohol treatment programs.

Energy

Utilities have proposed 17 new coal-fired power plants in the state. Proponents say coal plants are the fastest way to build and use a reliable, cheap fuel. Perry has asked the state environmental commission to fast-track permits for the plants.

Opponents say that the plants will emit pollutants such as mercury and the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and that the state should invest in energy conservation measures and renewable energy such as wind power. Some want to change the public review process for these plants or put a moratorium on the coal plants.

"There's going to be a lot of interest in alternative energy and clean energy," Rep. Mark Strama, D-Austin, said. "I think it is driven by high oil and gas prices, by a renewed public consciousness about the environment and global warming and by geopolitical instability in the Middle East that genuinely jeopardizes our energy supply."

Health and human services

In 2003, the Legislature gave private companies a larger role in providing public assistance to more than 3 million Texans. The state gave a five-year, $899 million contract to a private group, led by Accenture LLP, to enroll Texans in food stamps, Medicaid and other public assistance.

The deal came under fire after problems such as paperwork mix-ups and inadequate training kept eligible Texans from receiving services. Last month, state officials scaled back the contract to $543 million and took back some of the tasks they had given Accenture. The project is expected to be scrutinized this session, even from some lawmakers who continue to support the privatization concept.

Taxes

The Legislature passed a one-third reduction in school property tax rates last year, most of which will not take effect until this fall. Some of the money lost to property tax cuts will be replaced by a new business tax. Companies will not pay the new tax until 2008, and lawmakers are expected to make sure the language of the new tax law meets their intent.

"The goal is to make sure that it raises the amount of money that we projected," said Sen. Steve Ogden, a Bryan Republican who leads the Senate Finance Committee. Others might push for new deductions in the tax, which applies to a company's gross receipts, or for a lower tax rate.

Also up for debate will be whether lawmakers should lower the limit on how much the taxable value of a home can increase each year and whether the state should make it more difficult for local governments to collect more money without a public vote.