Senator Eliot Shapleigh - El Paso, Texas

AUSTIN — Few outside of El Paso are paying attention to a state Senate race there, but some consider it as important as any contest in Texas this fall.

That's because Republican challenger Dee Margo has the money to give incumbent Democrat Eliot Shapleigh a stiff challenge in a normally solid Democrat area — and if Margo wins, the GOP would solidify its control of the Texas Senate.

For Texas Democrats, a Shapleigh victory is imperative for the party to keep what little leverage it has on state government.

Republicans hold all 29 statewide elected offices in addition to the Governor's Mansion and majorities in the House and Senate. But Democrats can still influence the Senate because its rules allow 11 members to block legislation from floor debate.

A Margo upset would leave Democrats one senator short of the magical 11.

"It has the highest ramification of any race in the state of Texas," Bryan Eppstein, a Fort Worth-based GOP consultant, said of the El Paso race. "This is probably the most significant race affecting the future of Texas and the Texas Legislature."

The Shapleigh-Margo contest is the only competitive state Senate race in Texas this fall, but few have noticed, he added.

"It's flying off the radar because it's a very Democratic district," Eppstein said.

But there are enough oddities in place that could make the outcome closer than expected, he said.

Not all El Paso Democrats embrace Shapleigh, whose leadership style has alienated some and gained Margo the support of a few — including El Paso Sheriff Leo Samaniego, who appears in TV campaign spots for the Republican.

The lack of a strong statewide Democratic ticket and few exciting local races could combine to suppress voter turnout. And El Paso's typically strong Democrat straight ticket voting could be diluted with votes for independent gubernatorial candidates Carole Keeton Strayhorn or Kinky Friedman.

"I think it's going to be very, very close," longtime Democrat and community leader Travis Johnson said. "There's just no expectations of a large turnout, and a low turnout will (work) to Dee Margo's benefit."

The only contemporary Republican to carry El Paso in a general election was then-Gov. George W. Bush in his 1998 re-election. Adair Margo, Dee Margo's wife, ran Bush's El Paso campaign.

"Dee and Adair Margo are very popular in the community," Johnson said. "They are both involved in all kinds of civic work."

Dee Margo is the past chairman of the Greater El Paso Chamber of Commerce and head of an insurance company.

He holds a sizable campaign funding advantage heading into the final weeks before the Nov. 7 election.

He reported $160,000 cash on hand this month compared with Shapleigh's $67,000 — and that did not include more than $200,000 collected this week from a Laura Bush fundraiser for Margo. Margo reported twice as many contributors (1,538) as Shapleigh (765).

Margo has run the best race he could have, said Gregory Rocha, chairman of the political science department at the University of Texas at El Paso.

"It's going to be close, but will he pull it off? Structurally, there's just too much (in El Paso) that favors the Democrats," Rocha said.

An upset would be a stunning development, he said.

"Think of the implications. Here's the first foray by the Republicans into the last bastion of Democratic party strength here on the border," Rocha said. "That's huge."

Shapleigh said a Margo win would deprive Democrats of the ability to block legislation they consider harmful to middle- and low-income Texans.

"If Republicans win, Democrats cannot stop some of the radical initiatives of the past like vouchers, predatory lending or more CHIP cuts, so this race is the only chance to affect the course of state government," said Shapleigh, who has served in the Senate for 10 years.

Ten of the Democrats' 11 Senate districts have a Hispanic or African American majority, including Shapleigh's district. The Senate's 11-vote block rule is vital to ensure minority views get represented, said Ed Martin, a Democratic consultant.

Martin expects Margo to use his money advantage on attack ads in the final weeks against Shapleigh "because that's the only way you can win a district that favors the other side."

Margo said he plans to run "contrast ads."

"There's a great deal of frustration that we don't have a senator who can get it done for us," Margo said, citing lack of funding for flood control projects and a medical school.

Margo downplays his Republican affiliation in a community much friendlier to Democrats.

"I don't think it's a Republican or a Democrat race. I don't think it requires a Republican to do it in Austin. It just requires somebody to get along with others," Margo said.

Shapleigh's Web site boasts of his relationship with New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, but he raised eyebrows earlier this year by endorsing Rep. Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio, in the Democrat primary against Shapleigh's Senate colleague, Sen. Frank Madla, D-San Antonio.

Uresti upset the veteran Madla and recently joined Shapleigh and about 50 others for a horseback ride through El Paso-area neighborhoods.

"Sen. Shapleigh is a man of integrity, and he's very passionate about issues that are similar to mine — taking care of children, taking care our seniors, the mentally retarded and the mentally ill," Uresti said. "He will fight to the end for those folks."