Senator Eliot Shapleigh - El Paso, Texas

AUSTIN — With the Texas House now almost evenly divided, the battle is shaping up for control of the 150-member chamber in next year’s elections. Republicans are scrambling to protect and expand their precarious majority, and Democrats are within striking distance of regaining control.

Both major parties and allied organizations are recruiting candidates, raising money and targeting incumbents whom they consider potentially vulnerable. An undetermined number of House seats are also expected to open up in the coming months as incumbents retire or seek other offices.

The populous North Texas metropolitan region is emerging as pivotal in the campaign for control of the House, according to interviews with party officials, lawmakers and political consultants.

High on the list of Republicans targeted by Democrats is Rep. Linda Harper-Brown of Irving, who won re-election in 2008 by 19 votes after a recount. GOP strategists are expected to take aim at several freshman and sophomore Democrats in Dallas and Tarrant counties, including Chris Turner of Burleson and Paula Pierson of Arlington.

"I think that North Texas will be a battleground for control of the Legislature," said Russell Langley, political action coordinator for the Texas Values in Action Coalition, which supports Democratic candidates in North Texas.

The House has 76 Republicans and 74 Democrats.

Big stakes for Straus

Perhaps the member with the most at stake is first-term Speaker Joe Straus, R-San Antonio, who plans to vigorously campaign for Republican candidates to keep the House under GOP control and retain his hold on the speakership.

Members serve two-year terms, and all House seats will be up for election. Collectively, the individual races constitute a high-stakes statewide contest, made even more important by the fact that the 2011 Legislature will be responsible for political redistricting.

Republicans have controlled the House since 2003 but have seen their majority steadily erode. The GOP also dominates the state Senate, with a 19-12 majority. Analysts in both parties generally agree that Republicans don’t appear in serious danger of losing control of that chamber.

Tarrant races

In Tarrant County, both parties are aggressively preparing for next year’s races.

Former Democratic Rep. Dan Barrett of Fort Worth, who was unseated by Republican Mark Shelton in 2008, is chairman of the Tarrant County Democratic Party recruitment committee. He believes that Democrats will field a candidate "in the vast majority" of races for the county’s 10 House seats, now held by six Republicans and four Democrats.

"I’ve had people talking to me about every House race in Tarrant County, which is a little unusual this early in the game," Barrett said.

He added that some have already committed but that he was not at liberty to name them.

Tarrant County Republican Party Chairwoman Stephanie Klick said Pierson and Turner will be high on the local party’s hit list.

"I think those two seats are the ones [in which] we have a high interest in replacing the incumbents," she said. "Those two seats are where we have the greatest possibilities."

Zedler-Turner rematch?

Former Republican Rep. Bill Zedler, who lost the District 96 seat to Turner in 2008, is considering a rematch and has been visible at a number of Republican activities in recent months. Interviewed briefly by phone last week, Zedler said he is being encouraged to run and will probably make a decision in September.

Turner, who just completed his first legislative session, said by e-mail that he is "confident we will build on the bipartisan support we had in 2008 and win re-election next year."

Pierson has not drawn visible opposition, but Klick said she knows of at least one candidate who "for sure" is considering the race. Pierson, elected in 2006, said that she believes her District 93 is comfortably Democratic but that she wouldn’t be surprised to draw a Republican opponent.

Pierson is planning an Aug. 14 fundraiser in a ballroom at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.

Harper-Brown challenge

Harper-Brown, who represents District 105 in northwest Dallas County, has already drawn an announced Democratic challenger, Loretta Haldenwang, external-affairs director of the Greater Dallas Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. Haldenwang was the first 2010 candidate endorsed by Austin-based Annie’s List, which recruits and assists female Democratic candidates in legislative races.

Harper-Brown said she expects to "do much better" next year than in her close call of 2008 and dismisses Democratic speculation that the Republican leadership is discouraging her from seeking re-election. "That’s entirely untrue," she said. "Everyone has been encouraging me to run."

Other districts to watch

Democratic strategists have identified five to seven potentially winnable Republican seats statewide, including districts where demographics may be trending Democratic.

Besides Harper-Brown’s, they say, others include seats held by Reps. Todd Hunter of Corpus Christi, Dwayne Bohac of Houston, Ken Legler of Pasadena, and possibly Will Hartnett of Dallas and Todd Smith of Euless.

Republicans say they may make a run against Rep. Kirk England of Grand Prairie, who became a Democrat in 2007, as well as second-term Rep. Allen Vaught of Dallas, and freshmen Carol Kent of Dallas, Robert Miklos of Mesquite and Kristi Thibaut of Houston. Several rural Democrats could also face stiff challenges in Republican-leaning districts.