Senator Eliot Shapleigh - El Paso, Texas

Rick Noriega

It's the gaping "if" season for Rick Noriega.

In March, the Houston state representative beat three foes for the Democratic nod to challenge U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, in November.

I wonder if Noriega would have benefited by not winning outright. In a primary runoff, he would have had the state's political spotlight almost to himself, though it would have drained resources.

As it was, Noriega was overshadowed by the presidential primary showdown between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

A nonpartisan oddsmaker stops short of dismissing Noriega, a Texas Army National Guard lieutenant colonel who has stressed bringing U.S. troops home from Iraq.

Jennifer Duffy, senior editor of The Cook Political Report, says: "Given how poor the national political climate is for Republicans, it's hard to completely write off any Democrat."

Still, she says, "this is an uphill climb. It is notoriously difficult for candidates of either party to get well-known in a state with 19 media markets, 32 congressional districts and at least 7.4 million general election voters."

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, "spent $5.7 million in her barely contested race in 2006, and Cornyn spent about $10 million in 2002, and he had already been elected statewide," Duffy says. "Cornyn's (poll) numbers aren't stellar ... but he will be tough to beat."

Duffy plans to keep watching.

"What national Democrats want to see is how much money he can raise," she says. "They have no intention of pouring money into the state if Noriega can't raise a fairly sizable chunk."

At the end of March, Noriega's campaign had $330,000 in campaign cash on hand, a sliver of Cornyn's $8.7 million.

Historical note: No Democrat has won a Texas U.S. Senate race since 1988. Maybe it's fair to speculate that Noriega is warming up to seek statewide office in 2010.

Yet he has time to gain traction if he raises enough money and smartly defines himself while raising doubts about Cornyn.

In a sign of optimism, or naïveté, Noriega raised his post-primary fundraising goal from $5 million to $10 million. He's hired a fundraising chief who once corralled cash for Ann Richards. He's also brought aboard a Web marketing firm credited with helping Sen. James Webb of Virginia win a seat in 2006.

A look at his campaign kitty after the quarter ending June 30 should show if he's on track to give Cornyn a scare.

If only he were hunting the Senate seat being vacated by Idaho Republican Larry Craig, he of the naturally wide stance.

Democrat Larry LaRocco, a former U.S. House member, told guests at an Austin fundraiser that he can win in that state if he raises $2.5 million to $3 million.

LaRocco says he has tried 19 jobs one day at a time to learn from voters — and will continue sampling jobs upon election. "It's amazing what kind of wisdom you can find out in break rooms," LaRocco said.

LaRocco, encouraging Austin friends to build his buzz, said: "I don't care if you write a check or not."

Noriega can't afford to say that.