Senator Eliot Shapleigh - El Paso, Texas

Tom Craddick If ousted, may have say in next speaker.

It's put up or shut-up time in the contentious Texas House of Representatives.

Monday, candidates can start filing to be on the 2008 ballot. Time is running out on trial balloons and empty threats to take out incumbents. Early voting for the March 4 primaries begins Feb. 19.

"We will find out now if all the saber-rattling is for real," said Rep. Jim Keffer, R-Eastland. The deadline for filing is Jan. 2.

Voters in almost a third of the 150 House districts might see contested elections, according to news reports and assessments by political consultants around the state. There could be at least 25 contested primaries — Republicans challenging Republicans, Democrats trying to oust Democrats. By the fall there could be another 20 or so contested elections.

That is not unusually high, and political experts aren't predicting tidal shifts in the House membership, which Republicans control 81 to 69. To Capitol insiders, however, the 2008 battle for control of House is less about partisan ideology than about the future of Speaker Tom Craddick, a Midland Republican who this spring quelled not one, but two, challenges to his leadership job. A few votes one way or the other could strengthen or weaken Craddick's position.

Craddick is safe in his Midland district, but his re-election as speaker is in doubt unless the 2008 election reshapes the House membership more to his liking.

"The unusual part is the split within the Republican Party," said Keffer, one of six House members who are announced candidates for speaker. "There are some who feel the party has to be cleansed of anyone who questions anything."

The complaint voiced by veteran House members from both political parties is Craddick's leadership style. To some House members, including some of his GOP lieutenants, Craddick tries to force them to vote for his agenda over their districts' interests, a charge he denies.

At recent public appearances, Craddick has suggested that ousting the state's only GOP speaker in modern times would be an act of betrayal — "Do you want me to take my coat off to see if there's a (bullet) hole back there?" he joked — and accused plaintiffs lawyers of being behind the House rebellion.

"I'm the one who pushed tort reform (in 2003), and I'm not their favorite person," Crad-dick told a hometown audience. "I think I'm on their dart board. The group that's really pushing to get a different speaker is the one that wants to reverse the tort laws."

Skeptics point out that changes in the 2003 law are unlikely as long as Republicans control both legislative chambers and the governor's chair.

"People see through that kind of rhetoric," Keffer said. "I think it's ridiculous to say you are the only Republican out there who can get something done."

At a recent Capitol event, Craddick sidestepped questions about the 2008 election and speculation that he and his allies, coordinated by his daughter Christi Craddick and consultant Dave Carney, will spend millions in efforts to defeat his critics.

Both sides have incumbents expecting intra-party challengers.

GOP leaders in the Craddick revolt, Reps. Charlie Geren of Fort Worth, Byron Cook of Corsicana and Pat Haggerty of El Paso are likely targets. Others such as Jim Pitts of Waxahachie and Brian McCall of Plano might be considered too strong to challenge.

In South Texas, where the Democratic Party is the dominant political force, Craddick supporters such as Reps. Aaron Peña of Edinburg and Ismael "Kino" Flores of Palmview face opposition from fellow Democrats. So does Rep. Kevin Bailey, a Houston Democrat. Craddick rewarded all three with committee chairmanships for their loyalty.

In Central Texas, Rep. Patrick Rose, D-Dripping Springs, was one of the 15 Democrats who helped elect Craddick as speaker. But Rose split with Craddick over the speaker's refusal to allow a vote to remove him at the end of the session, which could help Rose avoid an intra-party challenge.

In Austin, Rep. Dawnna Dukes, a Democrat, got a key post on appropriations after voting for Craddick.

"That whole line of Dawnna voting for Craddick has no traction," said Dukes' political consultant Colin Strother. "It hasn't come up. This is Austin, probably the most politically aware city in the state, and they have no idea who he is."

More important, Strother said, is that Dukes has a good Democratic voting record and is running as if she has an opponent.

Her political signs will be up next week as she begins block walking.

"We're hitting it full speed," he said. "If someone wants to run, they will have a steep hill to climb."

This summer a faction of Austin Democrats tried — and failed — to find Dukes an early opponent. But Brian Thompson, a lawyer who works at McGinnis, Lochridge & Kilgore and who serves on the Austin Human Rights Commission, said Friday he is being encouraged by Democratic activists to challenge Dukes.

"We're tired of being represented by a Republican-funded politician who has pledged absolute loyalty to Republican Speaker Tom Craddick and puts her own political ambition and self-interest ahead of the best interests of the good people of East Austin," Thompson said.

The retirements of longtime Reps. Mike Krusee, a Williamson County Republican, and Robby Cook, a Democrat whose district includes Bastrop County, are among eight open seats with no incumbent. The fields of replacements are still forming and more retirements among House members could be coming.

So far the retirements have fallen evenly for Craddick. For every supporter he's lost, an opponent has quit.

In Travis County, GOP County Chairman Alan Sager said he hopes that Republicans can make inroads in two of the county's six legislative districts. Leander school trustee Pamela Waggoner said she plans to run against Democratic Rep. Donna Howard.

Rep. Valinda Bolton, D-Austin, must wait to see who her opponent is. Isabel Gallahan, a former member of the Round Rock City Council who now lives in Lakeway, says she is weighing a race. So is Bill Welch, who lost to Bolton in 2006 while spending more than $800,000 in what was the most expensive legislative race in Texas.

Campaign in 2008, of course, will be dominated by the presidential race.

An additional 3 million Texans voted in 2004, a presidential year, compared with 2006. That bump in turnout can't help but affect other campaigns.

"State rep races are a cork in a raging river," GOP political consultant Ted Delisi said.

No matter how the national campaign filters down, few political analysts are predicting a dramatic shift in the partisan makeup of the Texas House.

However, as the 2006 elections proved, when Democrats picked up six seats, a small push one way or the other can make a difference in tone and topics in a closely divided chamber. The House restored money to children's insurance, supported teacher pay raises and backed the governor's new business tax as a means to cut property taxes.

The math for a speaker's race is more complicated.

Craddick was re-elected speaker in January with the help of 15 Democrats to offset 14 Republicans who opposed him. Another half-dozen or so Republicans joined the anti-Craddick forces by the end of the five-month session.

Several of the Craddick D's, as the speaker's Democratic supporters are known, distanced themselves — at least publicly — after the session.

Even his Speaker pro tem, Houston Democrat Sylvester Turner, who helped Craddick hold off attempts to replace him, is now a candidate for speaker.

It remains to be seen how many of the defections from Craddick are a matter of election-year convenience rather than newfound conviction.

On the other side, Craddick's loyal Republican members argue that any GOP successor to Craddick will be beholden to the Democratic minority. In their eyes, that would make the House more likely to drift towards a bipartisan center.

Few lobbyists, however, are betting against Craddick, at least publicly, because they don't want to endanger their clients' legislative interests. They say Craddick controls the largest bloc of House members against a splintered opposition which has not united behind one leader.

Campaign 2008 either will provide Craddick his winning margin or, in one scenario, he could still choose his successor by releasing his supporters to the eventual winner.

"He'll be king," predicted one consultant, who didn't want to be identified talking about internal House politics. "Or he'll be the kingmaker."